Why settle for just picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby when you can take a swing at guessing the first three or four finishers, in order, for a far larger payday?
The trifecta requires you to pick the top three finishers in the correct order; it has paid, on average, $2,388.65 on a 50-cent ticket since 2013, spiked in large part thanks to last year’s $7,435.35 payout. The superfecta requires you to select the top four finishers in the correct order and has paid, on average, $52,328.52 on a $1 ticket over the past 10 years. Rich Strike, an 80-1 long shot, headlined a $321,500.10 payout in 2022.
As you can see, such wagers can return huge windfalls if played correctly, but they pay handsomely for a reason: They are difficult to predict. It is tricky to cover all the viable horses in this 18-horse field, especially with a limited bankroll. Instead, the savvy bettor will want to take an educated guess as to how the pace of the race will play out, focusing on horses with speed, a proper pedigree and a running style that should help keep them out of trouble in such a large field.
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A horse whose running style focuses on establishing a position close to the lead early in the race is known as a stalker, and it is in that pool of horses where the winner of the Kentucky Derby has usually been found. Since 2013, the first year of the present Derby points system, just two eventual winners were more than five lengths behind the leader at the half-mile mark: Orb in 2013 (18¼ lengths off the lead) and Rich Strike last year (17 lengths). Six of the other eight winners were no more than 2½ lengths back at the half-mile mark.
In this year’s race, there is not a lot of early speed. I’d classify Confidence Game, Kingsbarns, Reincarnate, Jace’s Road and Cyclone Mischief as need-to-lead types who could bolt out to the front, with Verifying and Derma Sotogake just behind the first flight of horses. Then it should be a glut of stalkers, with almost half the field trying to maintain position mid-pack. The closers — Angel of Empire, King Russell, Sun Thunder and Mandarin Hero — will probably be far back, hoping to make a late run past tiring horses.
To take advantage of the expected pace, key in on No. 4 Confidence Game (my pick to win the Kentucky Derby), No. 2 Verifying and No. 5 Tapit Trice, with No. 14 Angel of Empire, No. 1 Hit Show, No. 6 Kingsbarns and a few others filling out the rest of your exotic wager. With that in mind, here is how I would structure my tickets
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See the full field breakdown here, while here is a guide to finding value on a potential win bet.
Trifecta betting strategy for a fast track
Note: The minimum bet is 50 cents
4 with 2,5,14 with 2,5,14 for $3
4 with 10 with 6,8,12,14 for $2
14 with 2,4,5 with 1,2,4,5,6,8,12 for $9
2,5 with 2,5,4,14 with 1,4,6,8,12,14 for $16
Superfecta betting strategy for a fast track
Note: The minimum bet is $1
$2 super 4 with 14 with 2 with 5 for $2
$1 super key 4 with 2,5,14 with 2,5,14 with 2,5,14 for $6
$1 super key 14 with 2,5,4 with 2,5,4 with 2,5,4 for $6
$1 super 4 with 14 with 1,2 with “ALL” for $16
$1 super 4 with 1,2 with 14 with 1,6 for $2
$1 super 6 with 2,5 with 14 with 1,14 for $2
$1 super 2,5 with 2,5 with 6,14 with 6,14 for $4
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